The recent report of lower than expected inflation rates in Israel has raised questions about the future monetary policy of the central bank. While the inflation rate of 2.8% is within the annual target of 1%-3%, it has not been sufficient to prompt the Bank of Israel to resume its rate cutting cycle. Even though analysts predict that a reading of 3.2% had been anticipated, the ongoing war with Hamas has hindered any immediate monetary easing measures. The current global economic outlook of easing policy has not been enough to sway the central bank in light of the prevailing geopolitical risks.
Effect of Ongoing Conflict on Monetary Policy
The prolonged conflict with Hamas, now in its ninth month, has continued to keep Israel’s risk premium high. This, combined with escalating tensions on the northern border with Hezbollah in Lebanon, has made it difficult for the Bank of Israel to consider further rate cuts. Despite the stability of the dollar-shekel exchange rate, the widening spreads between Israel dollar-denominated bonds and U.S. government bonds reflect the uncertainty surrounding the country’s economic landscape. The central bank had lowered its benchmark interest rate in January to 4.5%, but subsequent decisions in July and August will likely be influenced by the ongoing conflict and geopolitical risks.
Market expectations and analyst forecasts for rate cuts have been varied. While some projected a 25 basis point cut in the third quarter, others like JPMorgan now anticipate a more cautious approach. Goldman Sachs foresees cuts in both the third and fourth quarter but acknowledges the unpredictability of the timing due to geopolitical uncertainties. However, the general sentiment among analysts remains divided, with some predicting a restart of the cutting cycle in the third quarter, while others take a more cautious stance. Barclays, for instance, does not expect any further rate cuts this year, citing the need for caution given the prevailing economic uncertainties.
One of the challenges in predicting future monetary policy decisions lies in analyzing the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The volatility of certain components, such as international air fares, can significantly impact the inflation rate. The unexpected 20% rise in flight prices in April followed by a 15% decline in May underscores the importance of understanding the underlying factors driving inflation. While some economists attribute the price pressures to higher wages and an expansion of the government’s budget deficit, others view it as temporary ‘noise’ in the inflation environment. This ambiguity surrounding the CPI poses a challenge for investors, central banks, and economists alike in making informed decisions about the interest rates.
The lower than expected inflation rates in Israel have raised questions about the central bank’s future monetary policy. The ongoing conflict with Hamas, coupled with geopolitical risks, has constrained the central bank’s ability to resume its rate cutting cycle. Market expectations for rate cuts remain divided, with some anticipating a gradual easing in the third quarter while others adopt a more cautious approach. The challenges in analyzing the CPI, particularly in light of volatile components like air fares, pose additional complexities in forecasting future inflation trends. As such, the Bank of Israel will need to carefully consider these factors before making any further monetary policy decisions.