Following England’s dramatic victory in the European Championship semi-final, the City is likely to be buzzing with excitement. However, the euphoria from Ollie Watkins’ stoppage-time strike sending England into the final against Spain has not overshadowed the ongoing challenges in the financial markets. While celebrations are in order, investors must remain vigilant as the battle against inflation rages on.
All eyes are on the U.S. June headline CPI data, which is expected to show a slowdown to 3.1% on an annual basis. The core CPI is forecasted to remain steady at 0.2% month-on-month. The outcome of this report could have significant implications for the markets, especially in light of rate cut expectations later in the year. Currently, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 73% probability of a rate cut at the September meeting. However, any deviations from the expected inflation figures could lead to a reversal in market sentiment, causing asset prices to fluctuate.
Despite uncertainties surrounding inflation and interest rates, global stock markets have been buoyed by record highs, driven by strong performances in the tech sector. In Tokyo and Taipei, markets reached new milestones, mirroring the gains seen in New York. The Nasdaq, in particular, has already surged by over 5% this month. Central banks have been cautious in their approach, with the Bank of Korea maintaining rates and acknowledging inflation risks. Similarly, the Bank of England’s decision not to signal an imminent rate cut has boosted the value of the pound.
As investors await key economic indicators like the Final German CPI, UK monthly GDP, and the U.S. inflation data, market participants remain poised for potential shifts in asset prices. While current expectations point towards a dovish stance from central banks, any surprises in the data could lead to sharp corrections in the markets. The volatility seen in rate-cut expectations underscores the delicate balance that investors must navigate in the coming days.
The aftermath of England’s football triumph serves as a reminder that market dynamics can change swiftly. As global economies grapple with inflationary pressures and policy uncertainties, investors must stay vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly. The upcoming economic data releases will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and setting the tone for future investment decisions.