European stock markets experienced a slight decline on Tuesday as investors waited for the latest inflation data from the region. The DAX index in Germany was down by 0.6%, the CAC 40 in France fell by 0.6%, and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. dropped by 0.4%. The upcoming June inflation data release is expected to provide insights into the European Central Bank’s potential future interest rate cuts. It is anticipated that there will be a slight slowdown in both headline and underlying measures compared to the previous month. Economists forecasted a 2.5% annual growth in the headline figure, a slight decrease from May’s 2.6% reading. The core inflation number, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to be at 2.8% annually in June, down from 2.9%.
The European Central Bank had initiated interest rate cuts in June before the U.S. Federal Reserve, but no further commitments were made regarding additional adjustments. The central bank cited concerns about high inflation levels as a reason for holding off on immediate rate cuts. Pierre Wunsch, the governor of Belgium’s central bank, mentioned that there might be scope for a second cut based on their forecasts. However, he emphasized that the urgency for a second cut was not immediate, and that the ECB might wait until their next projections are due in September.
Political events also garnered attention in Europe, as the far-right National Rally emerged victorious in the first round of French parliamentary elections. Despite this initial success, the possibility of the eurosceptic and anti-immigrant party winning power in the upcoming elections remained uncertain. The outcome would hinge on the political maneuvering by rival parties in the days leading to the election. Meanwhile, the U.K. was gearing up for its polls, with expectations leaning towards a significant win for the opposition Labour Party. A potential victory for Labour could pave the way for stability following a period of political turmoil during the rule of the Conservatives. This outcome might also facilitate the restoration of trade connections with Europe.
In the retail sector, J Sainsbury recorded a 1.4% decline in its stock value after reporting a slowdown in sales for the first quarter, partially attributed to a significant drop at its Argos chain. Sodexo also witnessed a 3.2% decrease in its stock price following slightly lower than anticipated third-quarter sales. However, the company remained optimistic about its 2024 outlook, particularly with major catering contracts lined up for the Paris Olympic Games and Paralympics this summer.
Crude oil prices saw a modest increase on Tuesday, with expectations of growing fuel demand during the U.S. summer season. U.S. crude futures (WTI) were up by 0.1% at $83.48 per barrel, while the Brent contract rose by 0.2% to $86.78 per barrel. Both benchmarks had reached their highest levels since April in the previous session. The anticipated surge in gasoline demand in the U.S. during the summer travel period, culminating in the Independence Day holiday, was a significant factor driving market sentiment. Traders were keeping a close watch on the latest U.S. crude stockpile data from the American Petroleum Institute, as well as any potential disruptions to oil refining and offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Beryl.
The European stock markets were influenced by a mix of economic data, political developments, and market expectations. Investors were closely monitoring inflation figures, ECB policies, political elections, company performances, and energy market dynamics to guide their investment decisions. As uncertainties persisted in various sectors, market participants needed to remain vigilant and adaptable to navigate through the evolving landscape of the global economy.