The latest report from Bernstein sheds light on the Indian stock market landscape, indicating a surge in investor enthusiasm towards Indian stocks. However, this surge seems to be driven more by greed than rational decision-making. The report assesses approximately 90 stocks across 14 subsectors, focusing on long-term growth expectations embedded in their valuations.
In January 2024, Bernstein evaluated the “implied growth” for the Nifty50 and MidCap 100 indices, revealing historic highs. The Nifty is expected to grow by 13%, while the MidCap 100 anticipates a 20% free cash flow (FCF) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next 15 years. Despite these positive growth prospects, earnings support appears weak, especially for midcaps, where the two-year earnings per share (EPS) growth lags behind the long-term implied growth. This discrepancy suggests that midcap stocks are currently the most overvalued in the market.
Since March, there has been a noticeable shift towards higher implied growth zones within Bernstein’s stock spectrum. The average implied growth has increased to 15.5% from 14.3%, indicating a rise in investor expectations. However, the average EBITDA CAGR for FY24-26 has decreased from 20% to 18%, highlighting a mismatch between valuations and earnings growth. Staples continue to dominate the high-valuation territory, while sectors like pharma and auto remain within the trend line zone. Lower valuation sectors such as healthcare, industrials, and telecom have become more selective, indicating a shifting landscape in the market.
Strong retail inflows have been providing liquidity in the market, sustaining a phase of forced investing even as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) exercise caution. With policy-driven earnings growth largely factored in, significant purchases at current levels are becoming increasingly challenging. The initiation of IPOs and stake sales signals a trend towards monetizing wealth and transferring risk to public markets. While sectors like consumer discretionary, IT, telecom, metals, and transport offer potential opportunities, bottom-up plays are dwindling, emphasizing the need for careful stock selection and analysis.
Bernstein’s India Portfolio offers insights into stocks aligning near-term growth with long-term expectations, providing a guide for investors to navigate the current market dynamics prudently. With valuations rising across sectors and some sectors showing signs of overvaluation, investors must rely on detailed analyses to identify sustainable investment opportunities in the Indian stock market.
The Indian stock market is currently experiencing a phase where investor enthusiasm is pushing valuations beyond rational expectations. To make informed investment decisions, investors should pay close attention to detailed analyses like Bernstein’s report, ensuring that they navigate the market waters carefully and capitalize on sustainable opportunities.