The U.S. stock market is once again feeling the effects of uncertainty as investors await crucial inflation data and a central bank policy meeting set to take place later this week. The previous week ended with mixed results, causing a slight decrease in indexes as Nonfarm Payrolls showed strength but other economic indicators pointed to weaknesses. This inconsistency has led to a reevaluation of expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability of a cut now below 50%.
Despite the fluctuations in interest rate expectations, all three major indexes closed the last week higher. The Nasdaq saw a significant increase of 2.38%, while the S&P 500 rose by 1.32% and the Dow added 0.29%. The information technology sector, in particular, experienced a significant boost with a nearly 4% rise in the S&P 500. Stocks like Nvidia, which are considered strong bets on artificial intelligence, led the rally.
Upcoming Events to Watch
As the new week begins, investors are turning their attention to several key events on the horizon. The Consumer Price Index data for May and the conclusion of the Fed's policy meeting will be closely monitored. While the interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, market participants will be looking for clues in the updated economic and policy projections. Analysts anticipate adjustments to rate cut projections based on recent economic data.
Market Expectations and Predictions
Some financial institutions have already adjusted their forecasts based on the latest data. J.P. Morgan, for example, now predicts the first rate cut to occur in November instead of July. The Producer Price Index data for May, import and export prices, and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey results are also expected to influence market movements later in the week.
In pre-market trading, Nvidia's shares saw a slight decline following a stock split. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis also showed negative movements. However, shares of companies like CrowdStrike, KKR & Co, and GoDaddy saw significant increases after being announced as new additions to the S&P 500.
Overall, the stock market continues to be influenced by economic data, central bank policies, and company-specific announcements. Investors must remain cautious and stay informed about upcoming events to make well-informed decisions in the ever-changing market landscape.