The upcoming week will see a focus on inflation data coming out of the United States. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key gauge of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve, is set to be released on Friday. This data will provide important insights into the direction of interest rates for the remainder of the year. Given the recent Fed minutes and cautious comments from policymakers regarding inflation trends, market participants are preparing for a scenario of prolonged higher interest rates. Additionally, various Federal Reserve officials, including Governor Michelle Bowman, will be speaking throughout the week. The economic calendar will also include revised first-quarter economic growth data and the release of the Fed's Beige Book.
The European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates in its upcoming June meeting, but the pace of rate cuts remains uncertain. The inflation data set to be released on Friday will play a crucial role in determining the ECB's future policy actions. Economists are forecasting a slight uptick in euro zone inflation to 2.5% in May, with underlying inflation remaining steady at 2.7%. While these numbers might not deter the ECB from cutting rates, some officials are already questioning the necessity of further easing. The economic calendar for the euro zone includes the release of Germany's Ifo business climate index and the ECB's survey of inflation expectations.
Investors will closely watch the Tokyo inflation data scheduled for release on Friday, as it could provide clues about the Bank of Japan's future rate decisions. With ongoing weakness in the yen impacting consumption due to higher raw material import costs, there is speculation that the BOJ might consider raising rates in its upcoming monetary policy meeting. Additionally, the Ministry of Finance will release intervention data, shedding light on suspected intervention activities and the BOJ's bond buying schedule.
China's industrial profits data for the year will be released on Monday, offering insights into the performance of the country's economy. Following a decline in profits in the previous month, analysts are eager to see if there is a rebound in April. The official manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings are also set to be released on Friday. Economists expect the manufacturing index to hover slightly above the growth threshold of 50 for the third consecutive month. With Beijing targeting a 5% economic growth rate for the year, challenges persist due to weaknesses in the property sector and subdued consumer demand.
Oil prices experienced volatility last week, with concerns over strong U.S. economic data potentially leading to prolonged elevated interest rates that could dampen fuel demand. Brent crude posted a weekly loss, declining for four consecutive sessions, while U.S. crude settled lower as well. The impact of higher interest rates on borrowing costs could potentially slow down economic activity and reduce oil demand. Despite these concerns, analysts at Morgan Stanley remain optimistic about overall oil liquids consumption, expecting an increase of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day this year. Global demand has partially offset soft U.S. gasoline demand, providing some support to oil prices.
Investors should remain vigilant and monitor the upcoming releases of key economic data to navigate through the uncertainties in the global markets effectively. Understanding the implications of inflation, interest rate changes, and demand dynamics will be crucial in making informed investment decisions in the coming week.